Physician shortages are no longer a future problem—they’re here and reshaping how doctors work, negotiate, and plan their careers. For physicians, that means more leverage and more options, but also more pressure to be strategic about where and how you practice.
Big physician workforce trends
Over the next decade, the United States is projected to face a shortfall of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036, with particularly steep gaps in primary care and surgical specialties. That sustained shortage keeps demand strong for most physicians and ensures workforce pressure will remain part of the landscape rather than a short-term spike.
The distribution problem is even more acute in rural communities. Non-metro areas are projected to see much deeper shortages than metro areas, with total physician supply meeting only about 42% of need in non-metro regions by the late 2030s, versus about 95% in metro areas. That reality is already driving increased reliance on telehealth and advanced practice providers (APPs) to keep doors open outside of major cities.
At the same time, hiring timelines have stretched. Recent benchmarks show average time-to-fill for primary care physicians at roughly 3–4 months and many specialties taking four months or longer, with some surgical roles pushing well beyond 6 months. For the physicians who stay, that translates into heavier call, fuller panels, and longer clinic waits while positions remain vacant.
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Ongoing shortage:
The U.S. could face a shortage of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036, with especially steep gaps in primary care and surgical specialties.
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Primary care pressure: Non-metro areas are projected to see primary care physician shortages approaching 40% by the late 2030s, intensifying reliance on telehealth and APPs in rural markets.
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Hiring timelines: Average time-to-fill for physician roles has stretched to roughly four months for primary care and more for many specialties, directly affecting call burdens and clinic wait times for existing physicians.
Burnout, well-being, and work design
The good news is that burnout has started to ease from its pandemic peak—but it remains very high. National data show about 43% of physicians reported at least one symptom of burnout in 2024, down from 48% in 2023 and 53% in 2022, the lowest level since COVID-19. That’s a move in the right direction, but it still means nearly half of physicians are operating with chronic strain.
Certain groups remain at particularly high risk. Women physicians and frontline specialties like emergency medicine and general internal medicine consistently report higher burnout, and burnout is tied to higher turnover and reduced clinical FTEs. For employers, that makes it a core workforce issue; for physicians, it underscores the need to prioritize work design—not just compensation—when evaluating opportunities.
Technology, AI, and changing practice models
Artificial intelligence is increasingly being folded into physician workforce planning. Organizations are piloting tools for documentation, triage, prediction, and decision support, seeking to remove low-value “busy work” from physicians’ days. Even so, current projections still show net positive demand growth for physicians over the coming decade, especially in fields tied to chronic disease and aging populations.
Practice models are also shifting. Hospital and health-system employment continue to dominate, but many systems are experimenting with hybrid roles, telehealth-heavy positions, and part-time arrangements to attract and retain physicians in a tight market. That variety gives physicians more options—and makes it more important to clarify what kind of practice structure is actually sustainable for you.
If you’re an employed physician thinking about how these workforce shifts may affect your workload, schedule, or long-term sustainability, Kace Premier Medical Talent can help you evaluate direct-hire opportunities with clarity and context—before pressure forces a decision.
Sources:
Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) physician supply and demand reports; Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) physician workforce projections.
